I started buying property in Germany in 2004. From 2005 I concentrated on residential buildings in Berlin. At the time it was not the obvious choice, and I've often been asked how we were able to see it early. The honest answer is that there was no single brilliant insight. There was a set of signals, and the discipline to act on them before they turned into consensus.

Twenty years later, I still use the same checklist. Here it is.

1. A gap between quality and price.
The first question I ask is whether what you're buying is worth more than the market is charging for it. In Berlin we were looking at a major European capital with a large stock of solid rental buildings, priced as if it were a secondary city. A gap like that doesn't last forever. Someone has to be early enough to close it.

2. Demand you can see on the street, not in a forecast.
Forecasts are easy to build and easy to bend. I trust what I can see: people moving into a city, apartments renting quickly, and neighborhoods changing block by block. The historic Postfuhramt in Berlin-Mitte was a clear example. As Tagesspiegel reported in 2006, the plan was to make it an urban place for living, culture, retail and events, and the C/O Berlin gallery moved in as a tenant — a sign that the demand around the building was already broader than housing alone.

3. Assets that pay you to wait.
A long-term thesis only works if you can afford to hold it. That's why we focused on income-producing residential buildings. Rent covers the time it takes for the market to catch up with your view. A thesis that depends on a quick exit isn't vision. It's a bet on timing.

4. A market that local players underrate.
Some of the best opportunities come from places where the locals have gotten used to the status quo. An outside view can see what has become invisible to the people who live with it every day. That's an advantage only if you combine it with deep local knowledge: lawyers, property managers, and a real understanding of the tenancy rules.

5. Landmark assets as a statement of conviction.
Early landmark purchases, including the Postfuhramt and, in 2006, the Yenidze building in Dresden and the Ring-Messehaus in Leipzig, did more than add square meters. They showed sellers, partners and financiers that we were serious about the market for the long term.

6. A path to scale.
An early opportunity that can't grow stays a nice deal. The question is whether there's enough inventory, and enough financing and partners, to build a platform. In Berlin there was. By 2008 we had roughly 3,000 units in about 100 buildings. By the 2015 Frankfurt listing of ADO Properties, the company owned about 13,700 residential units.

What hasn't changed
Markets today move faster, information is everywhere, and capital flows in quickly. Even so, most investors still wait for confirmation before they move. By the time confirmation arrives, it's already priced in.

I still look for the same combination: real value, visible demand, assets that pay while you wait, and the patience to hold a view the market hasn't adopted yet.

What signals do you look for before a market becomes obvious?

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